Bitcoin Crypto SIP vs Stock Market SIP — Which Is Better in 2025? The Real Truth

Should you stop investing in the stock market and start a Bitcoin SIP instead? You’ve probably seen dozens of videos showing calculations where they claim, “If you invest ₹1,000 per month in the stock market, you can earn around 13% CAGR returns.” Let’s break that down: ₹1,000 per month → ₹2.44 lakh in 10 years ₹5.49 lakh in 15 years ₹13.3 lakh in 20 years But when they talk about Bitcoin SIP, the numbers sound unreal: ₹1,000 per month for 10 years = ₹1.2 lakh invested → becomes ₹69 lakh ₹1,000 per month for 15 years = ₹1.8 lakh invested → becomes ₹13 crore ₹1,000 per month for 20 years = ₹2.4 lakh invested → becomes ₹43 crore Such calculations are shown assuming Bitcoin delivers 60% CAGR returns (some even claim 150%+). Let’s analyze if this makes sense or if it’s just a fantasy. Bitcoin’s Historical Returns — The Truth Behind the Numbers In the last 16 years, Bitcoin has given 36,000% total returns, which equals roughly 180% CAGR. However, that number has been declining over time: 10 years CAGR: 85% 8 years CAGR: 55% 5 years CAGR: 48% Clearly, the returns are falling as Bitcoin matures. In the early years, it skyrocketed from almost zero. But now that it’s valued above $125,000 (≈ ₹1 crore) per Bitcoin, the scope for exponential growth is shrinking. So yes — the past numbers are real. But can Bitcoin realistically keep growing 60% every year for the next 20 years? Let’s see what that would imply. The Unrealistic Future Projection If Bitcoin continues growing at 60% CAGR, in 10 years its price would reach $3.75 million per Bitcoin. With only 21 million Bitcoins in total supply, that means a market capitalization of $261 trillion. To put that in context: The entire world’s GDP is around $111 trillion. Even Elon Musk’s net worth is about $0.5 trillion. So Bitcoin being worth 2.5× the world’s economy is simply impossible. These calculations may look exciting on YouTube, but they don’t hold up logically. The Real Problem — Ignoring Risk Even though Bitcoin can give high returns, it also carries extremely high volatility. Bitcoin has historically dropped 60–80% multiple times. In comparison, Nifty or stock SIPs rarely see such drawdowns — even the 2020 crash was about 50%, followed by recovery. So if your SIP value in Bitcoin drops 50% in six months, will you stay invested? Most retail investors panic and exit. That’s why Bitcoin SIPs should only be done with money you can afford to lose. Bitcoin vs Stock Market — Reasonable CAGR Comparison Let’s be realistic. Bitcoin SIP (optimistic): 25% CAGR Nifty SIP (average): 11% CAGR If you invest ₹3,000/month for 20 years: Bitcoin SIP → ₹1 crore (assuming 25% CAGR) Nifty SIP → ₹22 lakh (assuming 11% CAGR) Even this scenario is optimistic for Bitcoin, but at least it’s logical. Remember, Bitcoin is only 16 years old — Nifty has a century-long market structure behind it. Regulation & Taxation In India, Bitcoin is not illegal but not regulated either. Stock markets, on the other hand, are fully regulated by SEBI. Bitcoin: 30% tax + TDS applicable on gains Stocks: 15% (short term), 10% (long term) Also, crypto prices are influenced by global sentiment and regulation — which makes it unpredictable. Diversification & Volatility Bitcoin is a single-asset class — all your money goes into one digital coin. Whereas, when you invest in Nifty SIP, your money is spread across 50 top companies. Poor performers are replaced automatically — that’s the beauty of diversification. Bitcoin trades 24×7, while the stock market has limited trading hours — that’s an advantage for traders, but it also means higher emotional stress. Final Conclusion I’m not against Bitcoin SIPs. But if you’re investing expecting ₹1,000/month to become ₹100 crore — you’re fooling yourself. ✅ Do Bitcoin SIPs only with money you can afford to lose 100%. ✅ Expect around 20–25% returns in the best-case scenario. ✅ Stock market SIPs are safer, regulated, and more stable at 11–12% CAGR. ✅ Always balance both: High risk in Bitcoin + Stability in Stocks. If you want to trade Bitcoin or crypto futures with up to 200× leverage, you can open an account on Delta Exchange (FIU registered in India) — the link is here : https://www.delta.exchange/?code=YZPVUA